Even with the deluge of project cancellations, the U.S. power markets are facing the addition of 150,000 MW of fresh capacty by 2005, inflating reserve margins and therefore quelling volatility in power prices, according to George Given, senior economist at consultant Henwood Energy Services. He told the conference that this level of additional capacity will send reserve margins to 20-30% in many markets and even as high as 40% in some markets. "[The 150,000 MW] is well above what is needed for any reasonable reliability criteria," he said, adding this will keep power price volatility at low levels. On a much longer-term horizon, however, the view is more positive for power generators and traders. Henwood is forecasting that by 2015 the market will need 175,000 MW of new capacity to meet demand increases, Given said.
April 28, 2002